Velvet contradictions | Eurozine

On 15 March 2022, the Czech public was surprised to search out the entrance pages exhibiting footage of Petr Fiala – their pedantic, to not say uninteresting prime minister – in Kyiv carrying a helmet and a bulletproof vest. On the time, the Russian invading forces had been nonetheless inside attain of the Ukrainian capital.

Daring gestures like this have been uncommon in Czech international coverage for the previous decade. However much more uncommon was the proactive and assured diplomacy that adopted. Shortly after the Kyiv go to, Vít Rakušan, the minister of inside, introduced he can be pursuing a ‘hawkish’ place in a forthcoming assembly along with his counterparts on the query of sanctions towards Russia. And in autumn 2022, the Czech Presidency of the Council of the European Union was in a position to keep consensus on help for Ukraine and, in the interim, stave off battle fatigue amongst member states.

Instantly after the invasion, the Czech Parliament unanimously permitted a declaration denouncing Russia’s ‘barbaric, inexcusable and unprovoked aggression’. Nonetheless consensus over the nation’s Ukraine coverage shortly evaporated. The opposition began to criticize the federal government for not doing sufficient to protect residents from the financial penalties of the battle and as an alternative for appearing like a ‘Ukrainian authorities in exile’ – because the far-right chief Tomio Okamura put it.

The general public was additionally divided in its notion of the battle. Within the spring of 2022, Czechs confirmed notable solidarity after they welcomed greater than 400,000 refugees from Ukraine. By the autumn, nevertheless, a part of the inhabitants had began to precise concern at excessive inflation charges and rising vitality costs. The anti-government demonstrations in the course of the ‘Czech winter of discontent’ proceed as much as at the present time.

Though the organizers have claimed that their goal was to criticize the dearth of motion of presidency curiosity within the cost-of-living disaster, anti-Ukrainian sentiments had been obvious amongst contributors. Throughout one of many protests, as an illustration, clashes with the police occurred when demonstrators tried to take away the Ukrainian flag from the Nationwide Museum within the centre of Prague.

However although there are variations in opinion about help for Ukraine in Czech politics and society, it might be mistaken to speak solely of a wrestle between the ‘pro-Ukrainian’ and ‘pro-Russian’ camps. As an alternative, the controversy must be seen within the context of broader dialog concerning the rules guiding Czech politics. In different phrases: the Czech debate about Ukraine just isn’t a lot about Ukraine, as concerning the Czech Republic.

The velvet consensus

The populist and Eurosceptic opposition that emerged from round 2010 was a delayed response to the aftermath of the ‘Velvet Revolution’ of 1989. The ideological vacuum following the collapse of communism was shortly crammed by the will to westernize society. In geopolitical phrases, this meant breaking free from the affect of the Soviet Union/Russia and integrating into western political establishments, above all NATO and the European Union (EU). In financial phrases, westernization meant ‘transitioning’ from a deliberate economic system to market-based capitalism. And when it comes to social psychology, it meant rejecting the communist previous and the values it represented, and introducing a liberal mindset centred on the free particular person.

By and huge, these goals had been efficiently fulfilled because of the power of the so-called velvet consensus. The Czech Republic entered NATO in 1999 after negotiating the withdrawal of Soviet troops and joined the EU in 2004 within the first spherical of enlargement. The economic system was considerably restructured, opening up area for small-scale enterprise ventures in addition to international funding. There was normal settlement that the earlier regime had been legal; its successor – the Communist social gathering of Bohemia and Moravia – was politically remoted. Liberalism was the dominant ideological body in public discourse.

In fact, there have been issues, together with the not at all times clear privatization of state property, corruption scandals and a wave of rightwing violence primarily concentrating on Roma. Nonetheless, there was a shared notion that these had been the illnesses of a younger democracy that will be overcome by additional approximation to a western lifestyle and governance.

This optimism vanished because the premises of the velvet consensus had been regularly undermined by their inner contradictions. After the nation’s profitable integration into western establishments, international coverage grew to become rudderless and marginal to the pursuits of the political elite. The collapse of the federal government throughout first Czech Presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2008 was symptomatic of this tendency. The federal government had supposed to make use of the Presidency as a chance to exhibit the reliability of the Czech Republic as a companion on the worldwide stage. However as a result of the opposition had no plans for how one can rule the nation within the aftermath, a caretaker authorities consisting of bureaucrats needed to take over the Presidency. The affair was deeply embarrassing for the nation. This international coverage vacuum allowed for the gradual however regular rise of opinion questioning the established order. Significantly the right-wing Civic Democratic Occasion (ODS) grew to become a hotbed of Euroscepticism.

Poorly regulated and sometimes clandestine privatization prompted the emergence of a brand new enterprise elite consisting largely of former members of the communist nomenclature. These had been the one folks in a position to summon the mandatory sources, their contacts and information permitting them to learn from the quickly altering financial dynamics. For these nouveaux riches, the crucial was to stay intently related to political events, which allowed them to learn from state contracts and public funds. When the general public grew increasingly more annoyed with these corrupt schemes, politicians had been compelled to react. In 2009, the ODS chairman Mirek Topolánek declared the battle towards regional ‘godfathers’ within the social gathering as one in all his prime priorities.

Fashionable dissatisfaction elevated additional in reference to the financial disaster that hit the nation the identical 12 months. Folks had hoped that over time the usual of residing would come to check with that in western states. However the liberal mindset of rightwing authorities led to austerity insurance policies that protracted the disaster and even made it extra painful, suspending prospects of enhancements in materials circumstances indefinitely.

The already discredited velvet consensus was dealt the ultimate blow in 2013, when the extremely unpopular centre-right coalition authorities collapsed after a lurid scandal involving the prime minister’s secretary and mistress, the abuse of the intelligence companies for amorous intrigues, and bribes from shadowy lobbyists within the type of purses. The impression of the affair was exacerbated by the general public’s frustration with the protracted financial disaster. It was hardly shocking {that a} important a part of Czech society began in search of political forces that provided an alternate.

Intolerant newcomers

That energy dislikes a vacuum was demonstrated in 2013, when three new gamers entered Czech politics and adjusted its dynamic for good. Regardless of representing fairly totally different pursuits, they discovered themselves in the identical camp and have become occasional allies in day-to-day politics. This course of accelerated after they started criticising corruption and the elites. However the ideological trajectory of those pragmatic politicians was largely formed by circumstances, above all of the so-called refugee disaster in 2015. This demonstrated that there was a robust demand for isolationist and nationalist insurance policies. Following common opinion, the newcomers started advocating a extra coherent worldview that didn’t criticise particular components of the Velvet consensus a lot as signify its intolerant antithesis.

The primary of them was Tomio Okamura, a businessman of Czech-Japanese origin who had made his identify within the tourism business. He labored tirelessly on self-promotion, writing books about enterprise methods, publishing a video weblog and participating within the Czech iteration of The Apprentice. In 2012, Okamura capitalized on his recognition and efficiently ran for the Senate. He began his personal political social gathering, Daybreak of Direct Democracy, which gained practically 7% of votes within the parliamentary elections the next 12 months. Because the identify suggests, the important thing element of the social gathering’s agenda was the introduction of referendums and different devices of direct democracy into the political system. On a extra emotional stage, the agenda appealed to common distrust in direction of elected representatives and a need to return energy to the fingers of abnormal folks.

Okamura’s first political challenge collapsed after inner quarrels over the social gathering’s funds. Nonetheless, he didn’t quit and, in 2015, based a brand new social gathering – Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD). Regardless of the identify, the brand new social gathering had a distinct agenda: Okamura began to criticize the EU and the Czech political system, as properly migration from Muslims international locations. This rhetoric enabled him to dominate the Czech far-right and win 10% of the vote within the parliamentary elections of 2017.

Okamura was now an necessary powerbroker, with the minority authorities fashioned after the election depending on the help of the SPD. Okamura additionally succeeded in navigating the coronavirus pandemic, after a few of his MPs radicalized and began to endorse conspiracy theories, earlier than ultimately splitting from the social gathering. Regardless of having to compete for anti-establishment votes within the 2021 parliamentary elections, the SPD reaffirmed its place and once more gained roughly 10%.

One other political participant to emerge in 2013 was Miloš Zeman, who grew to become the president within the first common vote held for this workplace. Zeman was not precisely a newcomer: he had led Social Democratic Occasion (ČSSD) within the Nineties and been Prime Minister between 1998 and 2002. He had even tried to run for the presidency in 2003 however had been betrayed by his comrades, who concluded that it might be higher to ship their former boss to retirement.

The introduction of the favored vote introduced a singular alternative for Zeman to make a political comeback. He had at all times been a skilful populist, a talent he demonstrated as soon as once more in 2013 when he introduced himself as a champion of abnormal folks – the ‘backside ten million’, as he put it. This was a intelligent option to place himself, since his opponent within the run-offs was Karel Schwarzenberg, a minister of an unpopular authorities with German aristocratic origins. Zeman gained with 54.8% of the vote.

Already then, his rhetoric had nationalist undertones. However as his presidency continued, he grew to become brazenly xenophobic, repeatedly expressing anti-Muslim prejudice. This grew to become the centrepiece of his election marketing campaign in 2018, when he defended his mandate. He continued to make use of confrontational rhetoric and introduced himself as a substitute for vaguely outlined liberal elites – nicknamed ‘Prague espresso home’. Regardless of his largely ceremonial position, Zeman tried to actively intervene in politics and to emphasize the necessity to rethink the nation’s international coverage and pursue a realistic and multi-vectoral strategy. In observe this meant growing orientation in direction of Russia and China. Though Zeman’s affect decreased over time, partly as a result of his deteriorating well being, his fashion knowledgeable the rhetoric and agenda of varied political actors, and his legacy stays seen even after he left workplace in the beginning of 2023.

The third actor whose political profession began in 2013 was the billionaire and agriculture mogul Andrej Babiš, a former member of the communist nomenclature who grew to become immensely wealthy in the course of the privatisation within the Nineties. Babiš had at all times maintained shut connections with politicians with the intention to preserve his enterprise increasing, nevertheless this didn’t stop him from growing the picture of an outsider difficult the corrupt social gathering system – which he nicknamed ‘Palermo’, in reference to the Italian mafia.

Babiš unique enchantment was additionally primarily based on his enterprise success, his supposed effectivity and talent to ship tangible outcomes. This picture made his social gathering ANO (the acronym stands for the ‘Alliance of Dissatisfied Residents’) the second strongest social gathering within the parliamentary elections of 2013. Babiš was appointed the minister of finance. In authorities, he fully overshadowed the nominally stronger social democratic ČSSD and took over its voters. This transfer allowed him to win the elections in 2017 and develop into prime minister.

Up thus far, Babiš rhetoric had been ideologically hole, as an alternative emphasising managerial expertise and a technocratic governance. However his partnership with Zeman and Okamura regularly radicalised his place. This grew to become significantly obvious within the parliamentary elections in 2021, when Babiš started utilizing fear-mongering ways in reference to migrants. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he argued for preserving out of the battle and attaining peace as quickly as attainable. This message grew to become one of many foremost elements of his bid for the presidency in 2023. Although unsuccessful, Babiš was in a position to achieve the help of two and a half million voters and stays the strongest political participant in Czech politics.

The trajectories of Okamura, Zeman and Babiš chart the emergence of the problem to the velvet consensus in Czech politics. Ranging from obscure anger concerning the corrupt elite and disappointment with financial and social improvement, the opposition formulated its personal imaginative and prescient of Czech society. This proposes a realistic international coverage through which membership in western constructions usually are not perceived as crucial. Quite the opposite, EU membership (and even membership of NATO) is seen as being disadvantageous because it makes it tougher to pursue the nation’s curiosity and reply to the calls for of residents. This international coverage place has led to a conflict with the liberal elite not solely in politics but additionally within the media and different high-profile establishments – a conflict from which opposition events have benefited, because it permits them to current themselves because the true champions of the folks.

The liberals rally

Including to the stress positioned by these intolerant political actors on the established political events is the emergence of recent rivals on the liberal a part of the political spectrum too. The voters of established ODS and Christian Democrats has began to be focused by TOP 09, Mayors and Intendents (STAN) and the Pirate Occasion. The consequence has been a fragmentation of the political camp. This may be finest exemplified by the outcomes of the parliamentary elections in 2017, after which all of the liberal political events talked about entered parliament, with none of them receiving greater than 11% of the vote. Babiš’s ANO dominated these elections, successful 29.6% of the vote and successful in each area. As prime minister, Babiš was now tasked with forming a authorities. To make issues worse for the liberals, its most popular presidential candidate in 2018, Jiří Drahoš, misplaced towards Zeman. At this level, it appeared that the velvet consensus was past saving.

Disparate liberal forces had been now compelled to debate electoral coalitions. This course of was difficult by private grievances, programmatic disagreements and totally different methods vis-à-vis the intolerant actors. The liberal events needed to undergo electoral defeat to grasp that their marginalization was a really actual risk. Solely then had been they prepared to compromise.  In 2020, the ODS, TOP 09 and the Christian Democrats fashioned the SPOLU (Collectively) coalition. The newly united liberal forces now began to solid themselves as defenders of the velvet consensus, framing their mission in safety phrases.

The Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 introduced international coverage again to the fore. The liberal events argued that the revival of Russian imperial ambition in jap Europe introduced a direct menace to Czech safety, sometimes giving the impression that it was solely a matter of time earlier than the nation was itself invaded. There was a lot speak of hybrid battle and disinformation featured prominently. These phrases had been helpful for liberals as a result of they enabled issues about nationwide safety to be turned towards home political opponents. Figures similar to Okamura or Zeman, who had been sympathetic to the Kremlin regime and surrounded by associates with murky ties to Russian entities, positively invited this sort of criticism. However labelling these politicians ‘Trojan horses’ or ‘helpful idiots’ additionally tended to obscure their pragmatic agendas and to ignore the explanations for his or her important recognition.

At a extra fundamental stage, the proponents of the velvet consensus noticed themselves as combating for the ‘spirit of the Czech nation’, whose place within the western group they argued can be misplaced had been the nation once more to succumb to the barbaric East. Babiš, who had been a member of communist nomenclature and doubtless an informant for the key service, was a very straightforward goal for this type or rhetoric. The liberal events had been fast to current Babiš as an evil pressure threatening to destroy Czech democracy. In a single PR marketing campaign, they in contrast him with the Russian president: whereas the nation was going through ‘new threats’, so the message, they had been represented by ‘similar brokers’.

Issues about Babiš had been undoubtedly justified. His wealth, possession of media homes, and clique of loyal collaborators had allowed him to realize a problematic diploma of affect. But to depict him as a product of communism misses the purpose: greater than the rest, he’s a by-product of the wild-west capitalism of the Nineties, the heyday of the velvet consensus.

Regardless of such distortions, the ‘militant democracy’ rhetoric resonated amongst sure segments of the Czech public – because the ‘Million Moments for Democracy’ demonstrations in 2019 confirmed. This common motion was in a position to manage the most important demonstration since 1989 and sure motivated political events to place apart variations and former grievances and type coalitions for the 2021 parliamentary elections. The Pirate Occasion and STAN now additionally joined forces to type a second liberal coalition alongside SPOLU. Nonetheless, ANO nonetheless dominated within the opinion polls. The election marketing campaign was accompanied with heated rhetoric from each camps. ANO targeted its adverse campaigning on the Pirate Occasion, accusing it of supporting migration from Muslim international locations. SPOLU ramped up the rhetoric of existential wrestle, depicting the elections because the final probability to save lots of Czech democracy, and ultimately managed to win by a really shut margin and type authorities with the Pirate Occasion and STAN.

Nonetheless, the victory of the liberal camp was solely attainable as a result of 1,000,000 votes – or 20% – went to events that fell in need of the parliamentary hurdle. To interpret these elections as an awesome reaffirmation of Velvet consensus values would subsequently be mistaken. Czech society remained disunited, and nothing confirmed this extra clearly than reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Again to Babiš?

The response of politicians and the general public to the Russian invasion of Ukraine illustrated the principle dividing line in present Czech politics. Events endorsing the velvet consensus had been satisfied that the end result of the battle in Ukraine can be decisive for Czech sovereignty. Their help for the Ukrainian trigger was partly pushed by the notion that like Czechoslovakia in 1989, the nation was experiencing its personal second of return to Europe. The truth that Ukrainians had been prepared to shed their very own blood to defend their model of the velvet consensus reaffirmed in minds of Czech liberals the relevance of their very own values.

Nonetheless, for an additional phase of society, there is no such thing as a such connection between the fates of the 2 international locations. Nationalist politicians argue that the Czech Republic has no obligation to become involved within the battle, particularly because it lacks the capability to change the end result. This camp prefers a passive and pragmatic strategy to pursuing nation’s finest pursuits, which in it is a case fast finish to the battle.

This debate is prone to resurface on the European Parliamentary elections in 2024. In keeping with rumours, Babiš is already making ready a confrontational marketing campaign that may goal not solely his political opponents – who he has already mentioned are directed from Brussels – however the EU as a complete. It’s fairly attainable that he’ll obtain important success, provided that Czech residents proceed to expertise financial hardship and the present authorities appears incapable of providing options. The electoral beneficiaries are prone to be the events of the nationalist camp, together with the SPD and the extra-parliamentary figures already organising anti-government demonstrations.

The European elections will even be an important take a look at for the unity of the camp endorsing the velvet consensus. Not solely as a result of relations between the events of the governing coalition are removed from rosy, but additionally as a result of the ODS itself is ambivalent. Traditionally, the social gathering was a nest of Czech Euroscepticism and its conservative phase continues to be influential. There’s at all times the likelihood that this wing, which is against collaboration with extra liberal events, will achieve the higher hand and switch for inspiration to like-minded actors such because the Polish Legislation and Justice social gathering. If this had been the case, it might create a major problem to the soundness of the federal government and to prospects for the cohesion of the liberal camp.

Political competitors within the Czech Republic is subsequently prone to proceed to revolve across the query of belonging to western establishments and cultural circles. In relation to the battle in Ukraine, this line clearly divides authorities and opposition. However on different matters – similar to additional EU integration or local weather change – it exerts much less maintain. Nonetheless, any main alteration within the composition of the 2 electoral blocs is unlikely till the tip of the battle, which sadly is nowhere in sight.